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[Case Report Comment] The art of managing medical uncertainty

Making the correct diagnosis in a patient with prolonged fever can take time and perseverance. Thoughtful, iterative trial and error is often required to obtain a diagnosis that in turn predicts prognosis and guides optimum treatment. Whether we realise this or not this is a Bayesian process—we update our opinion (diagnosis) as each imperfect piece of clinical information becomes available.1 Trials of empiric antibiotics and eventually of steroids might form part of this process but no guidelines help with the type and timing of these interventions.